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Cancer Medicine

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Cancer Medicine's content profile, based on 24 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.05% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Clinical outcomes and prognostic factors of low-grade serous ovarian cancer: A single-centre observational retrospective study

Prakash, R.; Khan, A.; Shahbazian, L.; Arthur, A.; Levin, G.; Gilbert, L.; Telleria, C. M.

2026-04-20 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.17.26351112 medRxiv
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ObjectiveThe purpose of the present study is to describe the survival outcomes of patients with low-grade serous ovarian cancer (LGSOC) in the post-operative setting from a tertiary gynecologic oncology referral centre in Quebec, including evaluation of patient characteristics, clinical outcomes and prognostic factors. MethodsThe study included 25 patients: 1) with a post-surgical histopathologic diagnosis of a low-grade serous tumour of the ovary, 2) underwent primary cytoreductive surgery prior to adjuvant therapy, and 3) for whom clinical data was available. Clinical and demographic features were characterized by descriptive statistics. Clinical endpoints of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed, utilizing the Kaplan-Meier method for estimating survival probabilities. ResultsThe median age of this cohort was 61 years (range, 26-81). Median OS was 140.6 months in patients with no residual disease (R0), 71 months in patients with microscopic residual disease (R1), and 27.7 months in patients with macroscopic residual disease (R2) (p=.001). Residual disease was also found to significantly impact PFS (p=.008). Administration of adjuvant chemotherapy failed to improve survival outcomes altogether (PFS, p = .270; OS, p = .300). ConclusionsThis study supports the shifting consensus that optimal cytoreductive surgery, where feasible, is paramount for successful treatment of LGSOC. Furthermore, treatment with adjuvant chemotherapy may lead to worse survival outcomes.

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Chinese Herbal Medicine as a complementary therapy for the management of Colorectal Cancer: Study protocol for a Delphi Expert Consensus survey

Ng, C. Y.; Liu, M.; Ai, D.; Yao, L.; Yang, M.; Zhong, L. L.

2026-04-22 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.21.26350990 medRxiv
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IntroductionColorectal cancer (CRC) remains a leading cause of cancer-related morbidity and mortality worldwide, despite advances in conventional oncological therapies. In recent years, various studies have made advances in integrative oncology, such as investigating the use of Chinese Herbal Medicine (CHM) as a complementary therapy alongside conventional oncological therapies to alleviate treatment-related adverse effects, improve quality of life, and potentially enhance therapeutic outcomes. Despite this, clinical practice in this area remains highly heterogeneous, with limited standardized guidelines on key areas of concern such as (1) optimal intervention, (2) recommended stage and duration of intervention, (3) safety considerations, and (4) possible herb-drug interactions. Hence, this study aims to establish expert consensus on the usage of CHM as a complementary therapy in the management of CRC, to support safe, consistent, and evidence-informed clinical practice. Methods and AnalysisWe will employ a modified Delphi technique to achieve consensus amongst a panel of international experts in various fields related to integrative oncology. Prior to the study, a list of questionnaire items was developed based on a systematic review of existing clinical practice guidelines on CRC. An international panel will be invited based on established international profile in integrative oncology research and clinical practice, and by peer referral. Two rounds of Delphi will be conducted using anonymous online questionnaires. Consensus will be considered reached if at least 50% of the panel strongly agree/disagree that an item should be included or excluded while strong consensus will be set at 76%. Items which achieve strong consensus after Round 1 will be removed, before being sent out for Round 2 with a summary of Round 1 responses for a final consensus. Ethics and DisseminationEthics approval has been obtained from the Institutional Review Board of Nanyang Technological University (IRB-2025-1222). Our findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. Strengths and limitations of this studyO_LIThis study will develop an expert consensus which aims to guide future integration of Chinese Herbal Medicine (CHM) as a complementary therapy into colorectal cancer (CRC) management. C_LIO_LIKey concerns in areas such as determining the (1) optimal intervention, (2) recommended stage and duration of intervention, (3) safety considerations, and (4) possible herb-drug interactions, thereby laying the groundwork for potential future incorporation of CHM into CRC treatment protocols alongside conventional oncology approaches has been identified, thus limiting implementation in clinical practice. C_LIO_LIDesigning a study e-guide, followed by the consensus rounds study online will facilitate participants responses and the dissemination of information from previous rounds. C_LI

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Quantitative and qualitative patient-reported analysis of misdiagnosis and/or late diagnosis of metastatic lobular cancer

Cody, M. E.; Chang, H.-C.; Foldi, J.; Jankowitz, R. C.; Balic, M.; Cushing, T.; Donnelly, C.; Freeney, S.; Levine, J.; Petitti, L.; Ryan, N.; Spencer, K.; Turner, C.; Tseng, G. C.; Desmedt, C.; Oesterreich, S.; Lee, A. V.

2026-04-20 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.16.26348799 medRxiv
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BackgroundInvasive lobular breast cancer (ILC) is the most commonly diagnosed special histological subtype of breast cancer (BC). Metastatic ILC (mILC) is less sensitive to FDG-PET imaging and often metastasizes to unusual sites --peritoneum, gastrointestinal (GI) tract, ovaries, urinary tract, and orbit--which may go unrecognized after a long disease-free interval. Some metastatic sites cause nonspecific symptoms, like abdominal/epigastric pain, with numerous published case reports of mILC misdiagnosed as gastric cancer. These atypical BC metastatic sites may lead to late and/or misdiagnosis, thereby delaying effective treatments. ObjectiveWe developed a patient survey to investigate the patient-reported prevalence of delayed diagnosis or misdiagnosis of mILC and their potential impact upon treatment outcomes. MethodsA 45-question survey was developed and piloted with breast cancer researchers, clinical oncologists, and patient advocates. This IRB-approved survey was then distributed to patients with ILC. Analyses including data QC and visualization were conducted in R using descriptive statistics. Incomplete or inconsistent responses were excluded, and summary statistics were stratified by four common mILC sites to highlight subgroup differences. Results525 patient surveys were completed, with 450 patients diagnosed with ILC, and of those 321 diagnosed with mILC. For those with mILC, 33.3% (n=107) were diagnosed with de novo mILC at initial presentation. Of the patients diagnosed with mILC, 32.1% (n=103) presented with other medical conditions at diagnosis. Misdiagnosis was reported by 26.2% (n=84) of patients with mILC, and of these cases, 31% (n=26) had [≥]2 misdiagnoses. The top 5 misdiagnoses were bone-related condition (24.7%), benign breast condition (23.4%), another type of BC (7.8%), diagnostic delay (7.8%), and menopause related (5.2%). 44.5% of patients waited [≥]1 year for an accurate diagnosis. 49 patients were treated for their misdiagnosis, and 6 received incorrect cancer treatments. The most frequently reported contributors to delayed or misdiagnosis were inconclusive imaging, providers lack of ILC knowledge, and initial misdiagnosis. Of the 321 patients with mILC, 138 (42.9%) reported symptoms before diagnosis; the most common were back pain (16.5%), fatigue/malaise (14.9%), GI symptoms (11.8%), bloating (8.4%), and weight loss (8.1%). Although 40% of patients reported having a mammogram at the time of their initial misdiagnosis, ILC was detected in only 20.5% (24/116) of these cases, and mammography detected only 5 (25%) of the 20 de novo mILC cases. Patients reported additional diagnostic testing within 1-3 months of their initial mammogram, includingbiopsy, ultrasound (US), and MRI. 47.9% of patients were in active BC surveillance after curative intent therapy at the time of their mILC diagnosis; however, no statistical difference was seen in time to diagnosis versus those patients not under surveillance. ConclusionOur survey results underscore the urgent need to improve diagnostic strategies for mILC. Addressing delays and diagnostic errors in mILC is critical to optimizing treatment strategies and improving patient outcomes.

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Impact of surveillance colonoscopy on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in Lynch syndrome - a national observational cohort study of patients in the English NHS 2010-2022

Huntley, C.; Loong, L.; Mallinson, C.; Rahman, T.; Torr, B.; Allen, S.; Allen, I.; Hassan, H.; Fru, Y. W. J.; Tataru, D.; Paley, L.; Vernon, S.; Houlston, R.; Muller, D.; Lalloo, F.; Shaw, A.; Burn, J.; Morris, E.; Tischkowitz, M.; Antoniou, A. C.; Pharoah, P. D. P.; Monahan, K.; Hardy, S.; Turnbull, C.

2026-04-22 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.16.26351020 medRxiv
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BackgroundLynch syndrome (LS) is a cancer susceptibility syndrome caused by germline pathogenic variants in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes. Due to increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), enhanced colonoscopic surveillance is recommended for heterozygote MMR-carriers. ObjectiveUsing a registry of English LS patients linked to digital National Health Service records, we aimed to assess adherence of MMR-carriers to national surveillance guidelines, and to determine the impact of surveillance on CRC incidence and mortality. DesignWe described the frequency of colonoscopies in 4,732 MMR-carriers and used logistic regression to determine predictors of surveillance adherence. For MMR-carriers with a record of surveillance and those without, we: estimated age-specific annual CRC incidence rates (AS-AIRs) and cumulative lifetime risks, assessed for stage-shift by comparing CRC stage distributions and stage-specific AS-AIRs, and estimated risks of death from CRC and any cause using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox Proportional Hazards regression. ResultsSurveillance at a mean interval of [≤] 3 years (n=3028) was associated with a decrease in CRC-specific and all-cause mortality, without an associated change in total CRC incidence, even after multivariate adjustment. No strong evidence of stage-shift was observed. Colonoscopic surveillance at a mean interval of [≤] 2 years (n=1569) was associated with an increase in total CRC incidence. Incidence of early-stage cancers was also higher, with no corresponding decrease in late-stage cancers, which may reflect the short follow-up period or the impact of overdiagnosis. ConclusionThe observed reduction in all-cause mortality amongst regularly-surveilled MMR-carriers may indicate an impact of surveillance on CRC-specific mortality, though in the context of a non-randomised study likely reflects the influence of selection bias. KEY MESSAGES OF ARTICLEO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSRegular surveillance colonoscopy is recommended in Lynch syndrome, though evidence to support this remains mixed. We searched PubMed for articles published from inception to 01/05/2024 using the terms "Lynch syndrome", "HNPCC", "colonoscopy", "sigmoidoscopy", "surveillance", and "screening". We found one controlled trial and several small analytical studies dating from the early 2000s which compared surveilled and non-surveilled populations and found surveillance to be associated with reduced colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and improved survival. More recent longitudinal observational studies, most without comparator groups, found a high incidence of CRC in LS populations despite being resident in countries where surveillance was recommended. A small number of studies directly assessed time since last colonoscopy against CRC incidence and stage with mixed findings. Finally, cross-sectional comparisons between countries of CRC incidence rates and surveillance interval recommendations found no relationship between the two1,2. What this study addsHere, we conduct an observational cohort study on a large national cohort of MMR germline pathogenic variant (GPV) carriers (MMR-carriers) in England (n=4,732), comparing CRC incidence and mortality in individuals with a record of regular surveillance to those without. Through linkage of the English National Lynch Syndrome Registry to Hospital Episodes Statistics data, we are uniquely able to study a comprehensive national population of MMR-carriers and identify the dates on which colonoscopies were undertaken over time, allowing assessment of adherence to national surveillance guidelines and the impact this has on CRC outcomes. Notably, receipt of regular colonoscopy was strongly associated with deprivation as well as ethnicity. The results show that regular surveillance at an average interval of 3 years (or less) is not associated with a reduction in CRC incidence when compared to less frequent surveillance, but an apparent decrease in both CRC-specific and overall mortality is observed, even after adjustment for confounding variables. Conversely, regular surveillance at an average interval of 2 years (or less) is associated with an increase in CRC incidence when compared to less frequent surveillance, which may suggest increased diagnosis of early-stage cancers or, due to the absence of a reduction in late-stage cancers, overdiagnosis. The observed impact of surveillance on overall mortality may demonstrate the impact of surveillance on CRC-specific mortality, or, in the context of an observational (non-randomised) study, indicate that the results are subject to selection bias. How this study might affect research, practice, or policyEvidence for the benefit of surveillance colonoscopy remains mixed. Whilst polypectomy would be anticipated to prevent CRC development (thus reducing CRC incidence), several studies have observed increased frequency of CRCs in MMR-carriers undergoing frequent surveillance colonoscopy, which may reflect overdiagnosis. The selection bias inherent to observational studies of surveillance renders mortality outcomes challenging to interpret. Randomised controlled trials of colonoscopic surveillance in MMR-carriers are required for effectiveness of this intervention to be accurately assessed. Given ethical and feasibility challenges, randomised controlled trials might be complemented by quasi-experimental designs using advanced observational methods for assessing effectiveness.

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Plectin promotes an aggressive phenotype and represses cytotoxic T cell activity in pancreatic cancer

Wolf, C. L.; Ruiz, R. K.; Khou, S.; Cornelison, R.; Stelow, E. B.; Kowalewski, K. M.; Lazzara, M. J.; Poissonnier, A.; Coussens, L. M.; Kelly, K. A.

2026-04-20 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.04.16.718901 medRxiv
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BackgroundPancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is an abysmal disease, with a poor clinical outcome, largely due to limited life-extending treatments for patients. Notoriously, PDAC displays a T cell-suppressive tumor microenvironment where underlying molecular mechanisms that lead to this phenotype remain poorly understood. To unravel specific mechanisms, we utilized bioinformatic analyses with functional studies and revealed the cytolinker protein plectin (PLEC) as a novel player in regulating the T cell-suppressive tumor microenvironment of PDAC. MethodsUtilizing the TCGA-PAAD dataset, tumor samples were separated by PLEC expression to evaluate patient survival, and pathway analyses associated with increased tumorigenesis. Evaluation of immune infiltration and subsequent immune deconvolution was performed using tidyestimate and CIBERSORTx R packages. Single-cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) analysis from 229 PDAC patients was analyzed to investigate signaling dynamics and immune cell infiltration in PLECHigh patients. Functional validation was provided using a monoclonal antibody (mAb) against cell surface plectin (CSP) in two murine PDAC models to examine changes in tumor growth and immune cell subset abundance. ResultsOur studies revealed that high plectin expression results in an overall worse survival associated with activation of pro-tumorigenic pathways and decreased anti-tumor immune signature in PDAC patients. Analysis via GSEA indicates PLECHigh patients display an aggressive phenotype and suppressed pro-inflammatory signaling pathways. Immune ESTIMATE scores were significantly decreased in PLECHigh patients, and scRNA-seq analysis revealed that PLECHigh tumors display a decrease in anti-tumor CD8+ T cells. In vivo analyses using an anti-CSP mAb revealed a reduction in tumor growth kinetics compared to IgG control corresponding with a significant increase in proliferating and activated cytotoxic CD8+ T cells. Anti-CSP-mediated tumor suppression was inhibited when CD8+ T cells were depleted, indicating that anti-CSP treatment is contingent on cytotoxic T cell functionality. ConclusionOur findings identify plectin as a biomarker of aggressive disease in PDAC, with high plectin expression associated with decreased T cell infiltration, and that treatment with anti-CSP mAb reinstates anti-tumor immunity and decreases tumor volume in vivo. These findings position plectin as a high-priority therapeutic target, with the potential to fundamentally reshape immune responses in PDAC and improve outcomes for patients with few remaining options.

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CDK4/6 inhibitors enhance oxaliplatin efficacy in colorectal cancer with RB-dependent and tumor-selective activity in intestinal model

Souza, A. S. O.; Conceicao, J. S. M.; Ferraz, L. S.; Delou, J. M. A.; Miranda, B. R.; Verissimo, C.; Carneiro, M. S. C.; Rehen, S.; Bonamino, M. H.; Borges, H. L.

2026-04-19 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.04.15.718743 medRxiv
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Although the retinoblastoma protein (pRB) is functionally inactivated by hyperphosphorylation in the majority of colorectal cancers (CRC) - with RB1 rarely mutated and even amplified at the genomic level - three critical gaps remain unaddressed: no study has systematically compared which first-line chemotherapeutic agent best synergizes with CDK4/6 inhibition using head-to-head quantitative analysis; functional differences between palbociclib and abemaciclib in chemotherapy combinations have not been characterized in CRC; and direct genetic evidence of RB dependency in this combinatorial context is lacking. Here, we addressed these gaps by evaluating palbociclib and abemaciclib combined with oxaliplatin, 5-fluorouracil, and SN-38 in HCT116 CRC cells, with validation in SW480 cells, RB1-silenced HCT116 cells (shRNA-RB), and non-tumoral intestinal epithelial cells (IEC-6), using quantitative drug interaction analysis (Chou-Talalay), cell cycle profiling, apoptosis assessment, and pRB phosphorylation measurement. Oxaliplatin was the most consistently synergistic partner for both CDK4/6 inhibitors (CI < 1 across all tested concentrations), while combinations with SN-38 yielded variable results and 5-FU combinations approached additivity. The oxaliplatin combination reinforced G1 arrest and enhanced cell death, with abemaciclib producing more pronounced apoptotic induction than palbociclib - an effect not explained by differential pRB target engagement (both inhibitors reduced pRB Ser807/811 phosphorylation by [~]50%), likely reflecting abemaciclibs broader kinase inhibitory profile. shRNA-mediated RB1 silencing partially attenuated the combinatorial effect, providing direct genetic evidence that the synergy is RB-dependent. Importantly, the combination did not significantly potentiate oxaliplatin cytotoxicity in non-tumoral IEC-6 intestinal epithelial cells, in contrast to the pronounced enhancement observed in tumor cells, and synergistic benefit was preserved at sub-cytotoxic inhibitor concentrations. These findings identify oxaliplatin as the optimal chemotherapeutic partner for CDK4/6 inhibition in CRC, with a mechanism involving RB-dependent potentiation of apoptosis that is preferentially active against tumor cells and maintained at clinically relevant inhibitor doses.

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Leveraging Predictive AI and LLM-Powered Trial Matching to Improve Clinical Trial Recruitment: A Usability Assessment of Trialshub

Blankson, P.-K.; Hussien, S.; Idris, F.; Trevillion, G.; Aslam, A.; Afani, A.; Dunlap, P.; Chepkorir, J.; Melgarejo, P.; Idris, M.

2026-04-20 health informatics 10.64898/2026.04.17.26351107 medRxiv
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BackgroundRecruitment remains a major barrier to timely clinical trial completion. Trialshub is an LLM-powered, chat-based platform intended to help users identify relevant trials and connect with coordinators to streamline recruitment workflows. ObjectiveTo evaluate the perceived usability and operational value of Trialshub, and identify implementation considerations for real-world deployment. MethodsA usability test was conducted at Morehouse School of Medicine for the Trialshub application. Purposively selected participants included clinical research coordinators and individuals with and without clinical trial search experience. Participants completed a pre-test survey assessing demographics, digital health information behaviors, and familiarity with AI tools, followed by a moderated usability session using a Trialshub prototype. Users completed scenario-based tasks (locating a breast cancer trial, reviewing results, and initiating coordinator contact) using a think-aloud protocol. Task ratings, screen recordings, and transcribed feedback were analyzed descriptively and thematically, and reported. ResultsParticipants reported high comfort with using digital tools and moderate-to-high familiarity with AI. Trialshubs chat-first design, guided prompts, and checklist-style eligibility display were perceived as intuitive and reduced cognitive load. Fast access to trials and the coordinator-contact workflow were viewed positively. Key usability issues included uncertainty at step transitions, insufficient cues for selecting results and next actions, and inconsistent system reliability (loading delays, errors, and broken trial detail pages). Participants also noted redundant questioning due to limited conversational memory, requested improved filtering/sorting, and clearer calls-to-action. All participants indicated that Trialshub has strong potential to meaningfully improve clinical trial processes. ConclusionsTrialshub shows promise for improving trial discovery and recruitment workflows, with identified design implications for real-world deployment.

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Explainable, Lightweight Deep Learning for Colorectal Cancer Microsatellite Instability Screening in Low-Resource Settings

Adegbosin, O. T.; Patel, H.

2026-04-20 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.18.26350809 medRxiv
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BackgroundMicrosatellite stability status determination is important for prognostication and therapeutic decision making in colorectal cancer management, but the conventional methods for this assessment are not readily available, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Deep learning (DL) models have been proposed for addressing this problem; however, potential computational cost due to model complexity and inadequate explainability may limit their adoption in low-resource settings. This study explored the potential of explainable lightweight models for detection of microsatellite instability in colorectal cancer. MethodsDL models were trained using a public dataset of colorectal cancer histology images and then used to classify a set of test images into one of two classes: microsatellite instability or microsatellite stability. The models were compared for efficiency. Gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM) was used to interpret the models decision making. ResultsThe simpler convolutional neural network (CNN) trained from scratch had modest performance (accuracy=0.757, area under receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUROC]=0.840). With an attention mechanism added, these values increased, but specificity and sensitivity reduced. Pretrained models performed better than the ones trained from scratch, and EfficientNet_B0 had the best balance of high performance and low computational requirements (accuracy=0.936, AUROC=0.990, negative predictive value=0.923, specificity=0.953, 4,010,000 trainable parameters, 0.38 gigaFLOPs). However, a simple CNN model with attention mechanism had the best interpretability based on Grad-CAM. ConclusionThis study demonstrated that DL models that are lightweight when compared to previously proposed ones can be useful for colorectal cancer microsatellite instability screening in resource-limited settings while balancing performance and computational efficiency.

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Histology-Derived Signatures Predict Recurrence Risk and Chemotherapy Benefit in Randomized Trials of Early Breast Cancer

Howard, F. M.; Li, A.; Kochanny, S.; Sullivan, M.; Flores, E. M.; Dolezal, J.; Khramtsova, G.; Hassan, S.; Medenwald, R.; Saha, P.; Fan, C.; McCart, L.; Watson, M.; Teras, L. R.; Bodelon, C.; Patel, A. V.; Symmans, W. F.; Partridge, A.; Carey, L.; Olopade, O. I.; Stover, D.; Perou, C.; Yao, K.; Pearson, A. T.; Huo, D.

2026-04-24 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351499 medRxiv
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Purpose: To test whether histology-derived gene-expression signatures from routine hematoxylin and eosin slides are prognostic for recurrence and predictive of chemotherapy benefit in early breast cancer. Methods: We conducted a multi-cohort study including CALGB 9344 (anthracycline +/- paclitaxel), CALGB 9741 (standard vs dose-dense chemotherapy), a pooled Chicago real-world cohort, and the American Cancer Society (ACS) Cancer Prevention Studies-II and -3. Whole-slide images were processed with a previously described pipeline to generate 61 histology-derived signatures per patient. The primary endpoint was distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI), except in ACS, where breast cancer-specific survival was used. Secondary endpoints include distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) and overall survival. The most prognostic signature in CALGB 9344, selected by Harrell's C-index, was evaluated in additional cohorts. Signature-treatment interaction was assessed by likelihood-ratio tests. Multivariable Cox models incorporating age, tumor size, nodal status, estrogen/progesterone receptor status, and signature were fit in CALGB 9344 to improve risk stratification. Results: A total of 7,170 patients were included across four cohorts. The top histology-derived signature in CALGB 9344 showed strong prognostic performance for 5-year DRFI (C-index 0.63) and performed well across validation cohorts (C-index 0.60, 0.70, and 0.62 in CALGB 9741, Chicago, and ACS, respectively). The strongest predictive signal for treatment benefit was observed for DRFS. High-risk cases identified by the signature demonstrated greater benefit from taxane in CALGB 9344 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.76 for DRFS, 95% CI 0.66-0.88; interaction p=0.028), from dose-dense chemotherapy in CALGB 9741 (aHR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.85; interaction p=0.039), and differential chemotherapy benefit in the Chicago cohort (aHR 0.84, 95% CI 0.59-1.21; interaction p=0.009). Combined clinical-histology models improved risk stratification and identified low-risk groups with a 2%-10% risk of distant recurrence or breast cancer death. Conclusion: Histology-derived signatures from H&E images are broadly prognostic and, unlike clinical factors, may predict chemotherapy benefit.

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Semaglutide is associated with improved breast cancer survival, lower metastatic burden, and a dose-survival relationship uncoupled from weight-loss magnitude

Murugadoss, K.; Venkatakrishnan, A. J.; Soundararajan, V.

2026-04-24 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351609 medRxiv
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Metabolic dysfunction is increasingly recognized as a risk factor for poor outcomes in breast cancer, but whether incretin-based therapies confer survival benefit beyond weight loss remains unresolved. Using a federated electronic health record platform spanning nearly 29 million patients, we evaluated breast cancer survival after semaglutide and tirzepatide initiation in routine care. In 1:1 propensity-matched pooled-comparator analyses, semaglutide was associated with improved overall survival versus metformin, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, and dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitor users, with 54 deaths among 2,433 semaglutide users (2.2%) versus 395 deaths among 2,433 comparators (16.2%) over 24 months (log-rank P < 0.001). Tirzepatide showed a favorable survival association relative to pooled anti-diabetic comparators that did not meet statistical significance (P = 0.24), with 3 deaths among 220 users (1.4%) versus 64 deaths among 220 comparators (29.1%). In a head-to-head propensity-score-matched comparison, overall survival did not differ significantly between semaglutide and tirzepatide treated patients with pre-existing breast cancer (2,117 per arm; P = 0.12). In semaglutide-treated patients alive and observable at the 1-year landmark, higher maximum dose achieved was significantly associated with lower post-landmark mortality (P = 0.034), with an event rate of approximately 1.0% in the high-dose group (>=1.7 mg) versus approximately 4.5% in the low-dose group (0.25-1.0 mg). Despite a linear dose weight loss relationship for semaglutide, however, weight loss strata did not separate survival outcomes (global P = 0.22). In tirzepatide-treated patients alive and observable at the same landmark, neither maximum dose achieved nor weight loss strata separated post-landmark survival (P = 0.98 and P = 0.50, respectively). Structured EHR and AI-based clinical note analyses further showed significantly lower frequency of documented metastatic disease in semaglutide-treated patients relative to pooled anti-diabetic comparators, including any metastasis (7.0% versus 15.0%, rate ratio 0.5, P < 0.001), bone metastasis (1.0% versus 5.2%, rate ratio 0.2, P < 0.001), and liver, lung, or brain metastases (all P < 0.001). LLM-derived cause-of-death extraction further showed a 60% lower relative proportion of cancer-associated deaths in semaglutide-treated patients (19% of ascertainable deaths) than in matched pooled anti-diabetic comparators (47% of ascertainable deaths), with comparator deaths more often attributed to cancer progression involving metastatic breast cancer, leptomeningeal carcinomatosis, and cancer-driven organ failure. Overall, this study demonstrates that semaglutide use in patients with pre-existing breast cancer is associated with a dose correlated but weight loss independent improvement in overall survival. These findings motivate prospective trials of GLP-1 receptor agonists in breast cancer across various stages and treatment settings.

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In Silico study of clinical implication of markers associated with PTHrP regulatory mechanisms and linked to angiogenesis and EMT program of colorectal cancer

Carriere, P. M.; Novoa Diaz, M. B.; Birkenstok, C.; Gentili, C.

2026-04-20 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.04.15.718767 medRxiv
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Parathyroid hormone-related peptide (PTHrP), encoded by PTHLH, has been implicated in tumor progression through its involvement in epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), angiogenesis, and tumor cell migration. Previous experimental studies suggest that PTHrP may promote these processes in colorectal cancer (CRC), partly through the modulation of factors such as secreted protein acidic and rich in cysteine (SPARC) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGFA). These events play a key role in the acquisition of an aggressive phenotype in our experimental models. In this study, we performed an integrative in silico analysis of multiple transcriptomic datasets to investigate the potential role of PTHLH in CRC. Differential expression analysis identified a set of consistently dysregulated genes across independent datasets. Functional enrichment and network analyses revealed that PTHLH expression is associated with biological processes related to extracellular matrix remodeling, EMT, and angiogenesis. Correlation analyses showed a positive association between PTHLH and SPARC expression, while network-based approaches suggested a potential functional connection with VEGFA. To assess the clinical relevance of these findings, survival analysis was performed using publicly available datasets. High expression levels of PTHLH, SPARC, and VEGFA were significantly associated with reduced overall survival in patients. Notably, a combined gene signature based on these three factors demonstrated a stronger prognostic effect than individual genes, indicating enhanced predictive value. These findings suggest that PTHrP is associated with molecular pathways involved in tumor progression and, together with SPARC and VEGF, may contribute to a coordinated regulatory axis with prognostic relevance in CRC, warranting further experimental validation.

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Comparison studies between Cesium-137 and X-ray irradiators in epithelial injury using in vitro and in vivo models

Lakha, R.; Orzechowska-Licari, E. J.; Kesavan, S.; Wu, Z. J.; Rotoli, M.; Giarrizzo, M.; Yang, V. W.; Bialkowska, A. B.

2026-04-21 cell biology 10.64898/2026.04.17.719248 medRxiv
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Radiation-induced intestinal injury is a widely used model for studying mechanisms regulating tissue injury and regeneration. Traditionally, Cesium (137Cs) radiation has been used in research applications, but over the past decade, X-ray irradiation has become increasingly favored due to its improved safety and non-radioactive profile. Since each type of radiation has distinct physical characteristics that drive its performance, we sought to systematically compare the effects of the X-ray and 137Cs irradiators on intestinal epithelial injury and regeneration. Using established in vitro models, including colorectal cancer cell lines such as HCT116, RKO, and DLD-1, and mouse intestinal organoids, alongside an in vivo model, Bmi1-CreER;Rosa26eYFP, we evaluated differences in transcriptional, protein, and histopathological responses to irradiation. Our results demonstrate that X-ray produced intestinal injury and regenerative responses comparable to those induced by 137Cs, supporting its reliability as an alternative modality for studying intestinal radiation.

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CT-Based Deep Foundation Model for Predicting Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor-Induced Pneumonitis Risk in Lung Cancer

Muneer, A.; Showkatian, E.; Kitsel, Y.; Saad, M. B.; Sujit, S. J.; Soto, F.; Shroff, G. S.; Faiz, S. A.; Ghanbar, M. I.; Ismail, S. M.; Vokes, N. I.; Cascone, T.; Le, X.; Zhang, J.; Byers, L. A.; Jaffray, D.; Chang, J. Y.; Liao, Z.; Naing, A.; Gibbons, D. L.; Vaporciyan, A. A.; Heymach, J. V.; Suresh, K. S.; Altan, M.; Sheshadri, A.; Wu, J.

2026-04-23 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351428 medRxiv
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Background: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have revolutionized cancer therapy but can cause serious immune-related adverse events (irAEs), with pneumonitis (ICI-P) being among the most severe. Early identification of high-risk patients before ICI initiation is critical for closer monitoring, timely intervention, and improved outcomes. Purpose: To develop and validate a deep learning foundation model to predict ICI-P from baseline CT scans in patients with lung cancer. Methods: We designed the Checkpoint-Inhibitor Pneumonitis Hazard EstimatoR (CIPHER), a deep learning foundation model that combines contrastive learning with a transformer-based masked autoencoder to predict ICI-P from baseline CT scans in patients with lung cancer. Using self-supervised learning, CIPHER was pre-trained on 590,284 CT slices from 2,500 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients to capture heterogeneous lung parenchymal patterns. After pre-training, the model was fine-tuned on an internal NSCLC cohort for ICI-P risk prediction, using images from 254 patients for model development and 93 patients for internal validation. We compared CIPHER with classical radiomic models and further evaluated it on an external NSCLC cohort of 116 patients. Results: In the internal immunotherapy cohort, CIPHER consistently distinguished patients at elevated risk of ICI-P from those without the event, with AUCs ranging from 0.77 to 0.85. In head-to-head benchmarking, CIPHER achieved an AUC of 0.83, outperforming the radiomic models. In the external validation cohort, CIPHER maintained strong performance (AUC = 0.83; balanced accuracy = 81.7%), exceeding the radiomic models (DeLong p = 0.0318) and demonstrating higher specificity without sacrificing sensitivity. By contrast, the radiomic model showed high sensitivity (85.0%) but markedly lower specificity (45.8%). Confusion matrix analysis confirmed the robust classification performance of CIPHER, correctly identifying 80 of 96 non-ICI-P cases and 16 of 20 ICI-P cases. Conclusions: We developed and externally validated CIPHER for predicting future risk of ICI-P from pre-treatment CT scans. With prospective validation, CIPHER may be incorporated into routine patient management to improve outcomes.

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Elucidation of putative key genes involved in the regulation of triple negative breast cancer development and progression

Kumar, A.; Upadhyay, G. S.; Kashif, M.; Malik, M. Z.; Subbarao, N.; Rajala, M. S.

2026-04-20 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.04.15.718835 medRxiv
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The molecular basis of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), a highly aggressive and therapy-resistant subtype of breast cancer, is poorly understood. This study aims to identify key genes and pathways involved in TNBC development and progression using a systems biology approach followed by experimental validation. Here, two transcriptome microarray datasets from the GEO database were analysed using the R package LIMMA to detect differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in TNBC tumors. Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopaedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analyses using the DAVID database were performed to identify DEGs regulated biological functions and pathways. Further, a protein-protein interaction (PPI) network was constructed using the STRING online database, and the topological properties were determined using MCODE and Cytohubba plug-ins. The expression and the prognostic value of the hub genes were validated using the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) survival analysis. We found 727 DEGs, of which 473 were downregulated and 254 were upregulated in TNBC vs. non-TNBC samples. The GO and KEGG analyses indicated that the DEGs were mainly related to cell adhesion, tumorigenesis, and cellular immunity. The PPI network had shown six hub genes, namely CCND1, CDH1, ESR1, FN1, IL6, and PPARG, as the top key regulators. All these genes were validated by quantitative real-time PCR in the TNBC cell line using non-TNBC cell line as a calibrator, and the obtained results were in accordance with the bioinformatics data. This information may contribute to understanding the various molecular mechanisms that drive the development and progression of TNBC tumors.

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Attention-Guided CNN Ensemble for Binary Classification of High-Grade and Low-Grade Serous Ovarian Carcinoma from Histopathological WSI Patches

rani, a.; mishra, s.

2026-04-22 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351441 medRxiv
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Accurate histopathological differentiation between High-Grade Serous Carcinoma (HGSC) and Low-Grade Serous Carcinoma (LGSC) remains a critical yet challenging aspect of ovarian cancer diagnosis due to their similar morphology and different clinical outcomes. This study presents a deep learning framework that uses custom attention mechanisms, including the Convolutional Block Attention Module (CBAM), Squeeze-and-Excitation (SE) blocks, and a Differential Attention module within five CNN architectures for automated binary classification of ovarian cancer subtypes from H&E WSI patches. Although individual models achieved higher accuracy, the ensemble stacking framework with a shallow MLP meta-learner delivered the best overall performance, with a ROC-AUC of 0.9211, an accuracy of 0.85, and F1-scores of 0.84 and 0.85 across both subtypes. These findings demonstrate that attention-guided feature recalibration combined with ensemble stacking provides robust and clinically interpretable discrimination of ovarian carcinoma subtypes.

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Recovering Clinical Detail in AI-Generated Responses for Low Back Pain Through Prompt Design

Basharat, A.; Hamza, O.; Rana, P.; Odonkor, C. A.; Chow, R.

2026-04-23 pain medicine 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351437 medRxiv
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Introduction Large language models are increasingly being used in healthcare. In interventional pain medicine, clinical reasoning is essential for procedural planning. Prior studies show that simplified prompts reduce clinical detail in AI-generated responses. It remains unclear whether this reflects knowledge loss or simply prompt-driven suppression of information. Methods We performed a controlled comparative study using 15 standardized low back pain questions representing common interventional pain questions. Each question was submitted to ChatGPT under three conditions, professional-level prompt (DP), fourth-grade reading-level prompt (D4), and clinician-directed rewriting of the D4 response to a medical level (U4[-&gt;]MD). No follow-up prompting was allowed. Three physicians independently rated responses for accuracy using a 0-2 ordinal scale. Clinical completeness was determined by consensus. Word count and Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level (FKGL) were also measured. Paired t-tests compared conditions. Results Accuracy was highest with professional prompting (1.76). Accuracy declined with the fourth-grade prompt (1.33; p = 0.00086). When simplified responses were rewritten for clinicians, accuracy returned to baseline (1.76; p {approx} 1.00 vs DP). Clinical completeness followed the same pattern showing DP 80.0%, D4 6.7%, U4[-&gt;]MD 73.3%. Fourth-grade responses were shorter and less complex. Upscaled responses were more complex and similar in length to professional responses. Inter-rater reliability was low (Fleiss {kappa} = 0.17), but trends were consistent across conditions. Conclusions Reduced clinical detail under simplified prompts appears to reflect constrained output rather than loss of knowledge. Clinician-directed reframing restores omitted content. LLM performance in interventional pain depends strongly on prompt design and intended audience.

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Assessing the efficacy of behaviourally informed invitation messaging in increasing attendance at the NHS Targeted Lung Health Check: A randomised experimental study

Tan, X.; Danka, M. N.; Urbanski, S.; Kitsawat, P.; McElvaney, T. J.; Jundi, S.; Porter, L.; Gericke, C.

2026-04-24 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.12.26350693 medRxiv
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Background: Lung cancer screening can reduce lung cancer mortality through early detection, but uptake of the NHS Targeted Lung Health Check (TLHC) programme remains low. Behaviourally informed invitation messages have been proposed as a low-cost approach to increase attendance, but evidence of their effectiveness in lung cancer screening is mixed. Few intervention studies used evidence-based behaviour change frameworks, and rarely tailored invitation strategies to empirically identified barriers and enablers. Methods: In an online experiment, 3,274 adults aged 55-74 years and with a history of smoking were randomised to see one of four behaviourally informed invitation messages or a control message. Participants then rated their intention to attend a TLHC appointment, and selected barriers and enablers to attending from a pre-defined list, which were classified according to the Theoretical Domains Framework. Invitation messages were mapped to Behaviour Change Techniques using the Theory and Techniques Tool. Message conditions were compared on intention to attend TLHC using bootstrapped ANOVA followed by pairwise comparisons. Exploratory counterfactual mediation analyses examined the role of fear in intention to attend. Results: Behaviourally informed invitation messages did not meaningfully increase intention to attend TLHC compared with the control message. While a GP-endorsed message showed a small potential benefit relative to the other conditions, this finding was not robust after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Participants most frequently reported barriers related to Emotion (particularly fear), Social Influence, and Knowledge, while Beliefs about Consequences emerged as the primary enabler of attendance. Only around half of reported barriers and enablers were addressed by the invitation messages. Exploratory analyses found that fear was associated with lower intention to attend a TLHC appointment, yet none of the behaviourally informed messages appeared to reduce fear compared to the control message. Conclusions: Improving lung cancer screening uptake will likely require invitation messages that directly address emotional concerns, particularly fear, alongside credible recommendations. These findings highlight the importance of systematically aligning invitation message content with empirically identified behavioural influences when designing scalable interventions to improve lung cancer screening uptake.

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Estimation of cancer cases in transgender and gender diverse people in England

Pasin, C.; Jackson, S. S.; Thynne, L.-E.; McWade, B.; Westerman, T.; Ball, R.; Kavanagh, J.; O'Callaghan, S.; Ring, K.; Orkin, C.; Berner, A. M.

2026-04-22 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351378 medRxiv
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ObjectivesTo estimate current, and 5- and 10-year projected, number of cases of cancer per year in transgender and gender diverse (TGD) people in England, overall and by tumour type, accounting for uptake of gender affirming care (GAC). DesignPopulation-based epidemiological modelling study using an age-stratified Monte Carlo simulations approach and the NORDPRED method for predictions. SettingModels estimating cancer case numbers for TGD people in England based on publicly available 2023 cancer surveillance data and survey-based 2025 GAC access, and predicted at 5 and 10 years hence. ParticipantsTGD people aged 15 years and above. Main outcome measuresPrimary cancer cases per year overall, by gender, age group, tumour type, and current and planned GAC. ResultsThe estimated TGD population size in England is 441547 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 429207- 452890). Total cases per year of cancer in TGD people is expected to be 966 (95% UI 882-1069) excluding non-melanoma skin. Most cases are expected to occur in people aged 60-64. The top 5 expected cancers in TGD people are breast (19%, n = 187, 95% UI 149-241), colorectal (12%, n = 117, 95% UI 106-129), lung (11%, n = 108, 95% UI 96-122), melanoma (7.1%, n = 69, 95% UI 64-74) and urinary (6.2%, n = 60, 95% UI 54-67). Total cases of cancer in TGD people are estimated to be 1740 (95% UI 1584-1934) in 5 years and 2258 (95% UI 2066-2507) in 10 years (excluding non-melanoma skin). If TGD people were able to access their planned level of GAC, this would reduce these figures to 1555 (95% CI 1386-1766) and 2012 (95% CI 1797-2282) respectively. ConclusionsThis study provides prediction of cancer cases in TGD people in England, supporting the planning of service provision and training. This is vital, as with increasing disclosure, and long wait times for GAC, cancer cases in TGD people are predicted to increase. Summary BoxesO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSThe annual number of cases of cancer in transgender and gender diverse (TGD) people in England is currently unknown as gender incongruence is not collected as part of the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service. Some gender-affirming care (GAC) interventions are known to modulate cancer risk. Use of testosterone and chest reconstruction for transmasculine people is known to reduce their incidence of breast cancer compared to cisgender women. Use of oestradiol alongside medical or surgical androgen suppression has been shown to reduce the incidence of prostate cancer in transfeminine people while increasing their risk of breast cancer, compared to cisgender men. What this study addsThis study found that there are likely to be approximately 966 cases of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin) in TGD people per year in the UK. Though total annual cases of cancer in TGD people are expected to be 2258 in 10 years, improved access to gender-affirming care could reduce total cases to 2012 (a 11% reduction). These figures provide additional justification for funding to improve access to GAC via the National Health Service (NHS), as well as for training on the oncological needs of this population.

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Racioethnic Disparities in Risk of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors and Cardiovascular Disease among Women Treated for Breast Cancer: The Pathways Heart Study

Yao, S.; Zimbalist, A.; Sheng, H.; Fiorica, P.; Cheng, R.; Medicino, L.; Omilian, A.; Zhu, Q.; Roh, J.; Laurent, C.; Lee, V.; Ergas, I.; Iribarren, C.; Rana, J.; Nguyen-Huynh, M.; Rillamas-Sun, E.; Hershman, D.; Ambrosone, C.; Kushi, L.; Greenlee, H.; Kwan, M.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351612 medRxiv
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Background: Few studies have examined racioethnic disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women after breast cancer treatment, who are at higher risk due to cardiotoxic cancer treatment. Methods: Based on the Pathways Heart Study of women with a history of breast cancer, this analysis examines the association between cardiometabolic risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia) and CVD events with self-reported race and ethnicity, as well as genetic similarity. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to test race and ethnicity and genetic similarity with prevalent and incident cardiometabolic risk factors and CVD events. Results: Of the 4,071 patients in this analysis, non-Hispanic Black (NHB), Asian, and Hispanic women were more likely to have prevalent and incident diabetes than non-Hispanic White (NHW) women. Analysis of genetic similarity revealed results consistent with self-reported race and ethnicity. For CVD risk, NHB women were more likely to develop heart failure and cardiomyopathy than NHW women. In contrast, Hispanic women were at lower risk of any incident CVD, serious CVD, arrhythmia, heart failure or cardiomyopathy, and ischemic heart disease, which was consistent with the associations found with Native American ancestry. Conclusions: This is the largest multi-ethnic study of disparities in CVD health in breast cancer survivors, demonstrating corroborating findings between self-reported race and ethnicity and genetic similarity. The results highlight disparities in cardiometabolic risk factors and CVD among breast cancer survivors that warrant more research and clinical attention in these distinct, high-risk populations.

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Large language models and retrieval augmented generation for complex clinical codelists: evaluating performance and assessing failure modes

Matthewman, J.; Denaxas, S.; Langan, S.; Painter, J. L.; Bate, A.

2026-04-24 health informatics 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351098 medRxiv
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Objectives: Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in creating clinical codelists for research purposes, a time-consuming task requiring expert domain knowledge. Here, we evaluate the performance and assess failure modes of a retrieval augmented generation (RAG) approach to creating clinical codelists for the large and complex medical terminology used by the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Materials & Methods: We set up a RAG system using a database of word embeddings of the medical terminology that we created using a general-purpose word embedding model (gemini-embedding). We developed 7 reference codelists presenting different challenges and tagged required and optional codes. We ran 168 evaluations (7 codelists, 2 different database subsets, 4 models, 3 epochs each). Scoring was based on the omission of required codes, and inclusion of irrelevant codes. We used model-grading (i.e., grading by another LLM with the reference codelists provided as context) to evaluate the output codelists (a score of 0% being all incorrect and 100% being all correct). Results: We saw varying accuracy across models and codelists, with Gemini 3 Pro (Score 43%) generally performing better than Claude Sonnet 4.6 (36%), Gemini 3 Flash, and OpenAI GPT 5.2 performing worst (14%). Models performed better with shorter target codelists (e.g., Eosinophilic esophagitis with four codes, and Hidradenitis suppurativa with 14 codes). For example, all models consistently failed to produce a complete Wrist fracture codelist (with 214 required codes). We further present evaluation summaries, and failure mode evaluations produced by parsing LLM chat logs. Discussion: Besides demonstrating that a single-shot RAG approach is currently not suitable for codelist generation, we demonstrate failure modes including hallucinations, retrieval failures and generation failures where retrieved codes are not used. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that while RAG systems using current frontier LLMs may create correct clinical codelists in some cases, they still struggle with large and complex terminologies and codelists with a large number of codes. The failure mode we highlight can inform the creation of future workflows to avoid failures.